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The CDC says they don't know if COVID infection confers immunity
So exactly how is a vaccine supposed to work?
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- If COVID exposure doesn't offer immunity, then shelter-in-place while waiting for a vaccine that isn't coming, is a dumb idea. We need to figure out how to live with the disease forever.
- If COVID does offer some immunity, then shelter in place while waiting for a vaccine is a dumb idea. Just go get immunity the old fashioned way.
You can't control a disease once it's gotten too widespread -- and we're past that, it's too wide spread. So let enough low-risk people get it, that we're not swamping our hospitals, and that increases our herd immunity and lowers the R0 (Contagion rate). Each person that has had it, is one more person less likely to pass it (the velocity of spread is decreased). Plus you have people with antibodies you can use to treat ypeople that do have it.
| 🗒️ NOTE:
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| None of this is to say it was wrong to shelter-in-place to slow the first wave and learn more. But we're past that. We're bending the curve, now what? I'm talking from May on (with the exceptions of a few hot spots).
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| COVID Immunity and mutation rate
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There's some dispute on the Coronavirus mutation rate. The basics are it is an RNA type virus, that's twice as complex and mutates at half the rate of the seasonal flu. Combined, that's an effective mutation rate at 1/4th the Flu. Is that slow enough that we can create vaccines? We aren't sure yet. We think so. But some Chinese researchers dove deeper and found more mutation and outcomes than expected. So need more info. On the other hand, there seems to be evidence in at least limited immunity (plasma/antibody treatment, low re-infection, and study on monkeys). Also there were a few stories about China or Korea finding patients who had been cured that later tested positive. But it is believed that it's just residual RNA fragments that haven't been flushed from the body yet. (Nothing to worry about).
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