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More 970...
Is the 970 going to change the world?
By: David K. Every
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2002-11-04 09:23:05
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I tend to think that the 970, if and when it comes out, will be a really strong processor. In terms of spec or SPECS alone, the Power4 is a bit better than the Pentium4's. But the magic of the processor and how well it does work is in all the other details; and the magic of actually using them; not just in the numbers.
Intel also has a history of over-marketing and over-hyping. IBM and to a lesser extent Apple, both have more a reputation of under-marketing and over-delivering. If IBM implies that it will be out next year (around the same time as Intel's next bump), then I expect that IBM will hit that target, and deliver what they say they will. Intel usually slips and misses. Both have dramatic exceptions, but this is a trend that has some minor value in guessing for the future.
In the real world, the Power4, is a far, far better and more powerful processor than the Pentiums. It is put in better systems, and is designed better (architecture) wise, is more reliable, has a better ISA, runs better software and so on. That's how I measure "better", not just runs fast. I think bringing that to the desktop with the 970 is going to be a winner, that goes beyond what the sheer specs and numbers say.
To me this is like putting a big motor, nitrous oxide and big wheels on a Hyundai, and claiming that it is as good a car as a Corvette or M3. While it may look that way in a few numbers, it just isn't as balanced, stylish, convenient, and reliable -- all the little details that make it a good car fall a little short. But there is no doubt that in certain conditions, or even many, it would be fast, and look good in some specs.
Some think that speed is all that matters in a race. I think it is more than that. IBM's cost to design, their cost to write compilers, power to performance ratio, and real world performance all seem to be better; that kind of quality matters. It isn't like Intel is doomed or anything; they are so big that they can afford to eat their losses in inefficiency. But I still think there is some value in doing things better, and that eventually it will pay off.
  
Doubt it. When the PowerPC was clearly faster than the Pentiums, and the MacOS faster still, during the whole 601 - 604 phase of PowerPC's, there just weren't that many PC converts. Speed is not as important as the geeks think or want, just like interface isn't as important as the UI people think or want. Life sorta sucks that way, and there's a lot more to winning in a market than just being better.
During the 601-604 phase of PowerPC's, faster and better wasn't good enough. People see what they want to. Intel just cooked some benchmark numbers, and marketed the few areas where they were better, and confused people on the rest. PC magazines and advocates went along with it, and most people don't have the expertise or motivation to know better. And few people wants to change the huge investments they have in a platform and learn something new, nor to believe that they chose the second best platform. It is far easier to lie to yourself and others, and squat. All this happens to ANY platform, and in some areas, certainly happens on Macs today as well as PC's.
I think the 970 will be a great chip, but I don't think it can change human nature.
  
Apple can't just be "as good". They have to be better on many fronts, to just be seen as equal. I think the 970 is a needed boost, and will be a better chip, that might just help them be seen, reluctantly, as "as good". That's not a huge victory, but a big improvement over now. So there is a difference, just not a significant one.
If you're looking for the big win, and mass converts, it has to come at many levels. At least competitive or slightly better hardware performance, more open, better price (or better perceived value), better interface, operating system, applications, style, convenience, support, and so on. Apple has areas where they are better or even much better, and areas where they are worse. Apple is smart enough to market where they are better, but arrogant enough to ignore where they are worse or need improvement (always their weak point). They need to raise all the areas enough so even reluctant people admit the superior value, before a mass change could happen.
Sadly, for now, Apple has focused on being the BMW of the market. Charging a premium price for a premium product. That is a reasonable business model, and seems to work. But I don't think they will get that many converts with it; as in radical shifts in the industry. But they can be successful at marketing to the upper echelon of users, and hoping the rest follow. This is a slow trend towards the better. I think the 970 will follow that. But that whole business plan is not the PC's early Volkswagen "People's Car" approach that would radically change the landscape of computing towards Macs. So things can keep getting a little better, slowly. But most of those successes will be dependant on Apple being better on many fronts at once. 
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